Overview
Gold prices continue to show signs of bullish strength, supported by increased volume, clear structural shifts, and smart money footprints. This analysis combines Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), Smart Money Concepts (SMC), and classic Price Action to project potential price paths and a trade setup for short-term traders and swing participants.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
A key observation from the volume profile indicates significant buying pressure during the price’s reaction to the demand zone between 3210–3230. Wide price spreads on bullish candles combined with high volume reflect professional accumulation.
Additionally, a volume climax is visible near the recent highs at 3255–3260, with narrowing spreads. This suggests a possible buying climax and early signs of distribution, prompting caution as price approaches this resistance level.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
- Change of Character (CHoCH):
Around 22:30, a key CHoCH signals a reversal from a bearish to a bullish market structure. This shift was supported by liquidity grabs below equal lows (EQL)—a classic smart money move to trap sellers before initiating a bullish leg. - Break of Structure (BOS):
Multiple bullish BOS levels followed, validating the uptrend. Each BOS was respected, further confirming the strength of the move. - Liquidity Sweeps:
- Prior to the reversal, price swept equal lows, clearing retail stop-losses.
- More recently, the price action cleared equal highs around 08:00, possibly to collect buy-side liquidity before a retracement.
- Order Blocks (OB) & Imbalance:
Price reacted strongly from the bullish OB within the 3210–3230 demand zone. This area remains critical as institutional buying was evident.
Price Action Structure
Gold has printed a series of higher highs and higher lows, confirming a bullish structure. The most recent consolidation under 3255–3260 suggests a possible bull flag, but traders should be wary of rejection.
- Support Zones:
- Immediate: 3230–3240 (order block/demand zone)
- Major: 3205–3215 (volume accumulation zone)
- Resistance Zones:
- Immediate: 3255–3260
- Extended: 3280–3290 (next supply zone)
Projected Price Paths
Bullish Scenario (Preferred Path)
- Price holds above 3230–3240
- Low-volume pullback followed by high-volume breakout above 3260
- Short-term targets:
- TP1: 3275
- TP2: 3285–3290
A retest of the 3255 level post-breakout could provide a continuation entry.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative Path)
- Price fails to break 3255, forming a rejection wick with high volume
- Break below 3230, invalidating the bullish OB
- Bearish targets:
- 3210–3215 (first support)
- 3190 (deep correction)
Trade Setup (Long Bias)
- Entry: Buy limit at 3240–3245
- Stop Loss: Below 3229
- Take Profit 1: 3275
- Take Profit 2: 3288
- Risk-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5+
Entry Confirmation:
- Bullish price action (e.g., engulfing, pin bar) at the demand zone
- Increasing volume on up-moves
- No downside BOS after entry
Conclusion
The gold market shows strong signs of smart money accumulation and bullish intent, but faces immediate resistance at 3255–3260. A successful breakout of this level will likely trigger a rally to 3280+. However, failure here could invite a retracement to retest deeper demand zones.
Traders should monitor volume and structure closely while managing risk, as gold continues to trade within a smart money-dominated range.
**Its our personal market review not a financial advice.
