Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: Smart Money Concepts, VSA, and Fibonacci Confluence 20-05-2025

Gold prices have exhibited notable structural shifts on the lower timeframes, offering high-probability trading opportunities for informed traders applying Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), and Fibonacci tools. As of the latest 15-minute chart review, we observe a clear bearish structure taking form, confirmed by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Changes of Character (CHoCH). The most recent BOS around the 3210 level reinforces the bearish momentum, indicating institutional distribution at the higher supply zone near 3240–3250. This zone, already tested with strong rejection and a notable volume spike, marks a clear area of interest for potential short setups.

Volume analysis further strengthens the bearish case, as attempts to push higher into the 3230–3240 range were met with high-volume down bars and weak bullish conviction — a classic sign of hidden supply. A climactic volume bar near 3210 also suggests smart money involvement, either as stopping volume or preparation for a deeper markdown phase. Meanwhile, applying Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing high at 3250 to the low at 3180 reveals that the price is currently hovering between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels — a textbook reversal zone when aligned with institutional logic.

Given this confluence, a high-probability intraday short setup emerges with an ideal entry between 3215–3223, stop-loss placed above 3252, and profit targets layered at 3185, 3165, and an extended target near 3140. However, should the market violate the 3252 level with conviction and volume, a bullish scenario could unfold, offering a long opportunity on a retest of the supply-turned-demand zone. This type of structure-driven and volume-validated analysis allows traders to stay in sync with market makers, aligning their trades with institutional footprints for improved precision and profitability.

At Six Global Markets LTD, we help traders leverage advanced trading methodologies like SMC and VSA to make informed, professional-grade decisions. Stay tuned for more trade setups and technical breakdowns aligned with institutional strategies.

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