1. Market Structure (SMC Analysis):
- Recent Trend: The market was in an uptrend but recently showed a change of character (ChoCH) and a break of structure (BoS) on the downside, suggesting a shift to bearish structure.
- Key SMC Zones:
- Supply Zones:
- Around 3,360–3,370 (marked with red boxes). Price reacted to this zone before sharply declining.
- Minor supply at 3,330, also respected.
- Demand Zone:
- Around 3,280–3,290 (highlighted in blue). This is a key zone to watch for possible reaction or reversal.
- Supply Zones:
- Weak Low: Currently being tested. If this low is broken with conviction, it confirms bearish continuation.
- Strong High: Still intact at around 3,370, confirming bearish intent unless price breaks above.
2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- High Volume Bar at the Low (Climactic Volume):
- The most recent candle shows very high volume on a down bar into the demand zone → potential stopping volume or selling climax.
- Watch how price reacts next 2–3 candles — if it closes above this candle’s high, we may see a short-term reversal or accumulation forming.
- Previous Up Move (Low Volume):
- The prior uptrend had gradually declining volume, suggesting lack of buying interest → potential distribution.
- Volume Spike near Supply:
- Confirmed selling interest near 3,360–3,370, validating that as a strong supply zone.
Combined Interpretation (SMC + VSA):
- Bias: Bearish for now due to market structure and recent BoS.
- Key Watch Areas:
- 3,280–3,290 demand zone: If price bounces with confirmation, intraday long might be valid up to minor supply (3,330).
- If price breaks below this demand zone with volume, expect continuation toward 3,260 or lower.
- Ideal Play:
- Wait for bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing + rising volume) from demand.
- Or sell on pullbacks to minor supply zones after weak rallies, especially if volume is low on the retrace.
